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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasteras SK FK and Umeå FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Vasteras SK FK and Umeå FC drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.76 xG and Umeå FC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Umeå FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.36, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 63% | Draw 23% | Umeå FC 15%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights