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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Trelleborg 3-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.50 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Trelleborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 47% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 26%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 49%, Trelleborg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Trelleborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.09 PPG, Trelleborg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights