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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sandviken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Sandviken 3-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.36 xG and Sandviken 0.73 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.25 / defence 0.76 against Sandviken attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 73% | Draw 17% | Sandviken 9%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Sandviken's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.30 PPG, Sandviken 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights