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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.23 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.24 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 37%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Ostersunds FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights