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Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Orebro SK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.69 xG and Orebro SK 1.03 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Orebro SK attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 53% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 51%, Orebro SK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.17 PPG, Orebro SK 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights