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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG and Kalmar FF 1.60 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Kalmar FF attack 1.32 / defence 0.94, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 23% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 52%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights