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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vasteras SK FK and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Vasteras SK FK and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.25 xG and IK brage 1.43 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 33% | Draw 26% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 53%, IK brage 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights