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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.86 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.81 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.23 / defence 0.75 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 62% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 16%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 57%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.36 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights