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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 2.24 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 63% | Draw 19% | Vasteras SK FK 18%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights