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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Varbergs BoIS FC and Utsikten share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC and Utsikten finished level at 1-1 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.69 xG and Utsikten 1.00 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.68 against Utsikten attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 53% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 22%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights