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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC and Ostersunds FK finished level at 1-1 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.74 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.64 / defence 1.18, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 56% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 18%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 55%, Ostersunds FK 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights