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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.54 xG and Orgryte IS 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Orgryte IS attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 45% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 29%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 56%, Orgryte IS 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights