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GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.07 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.71 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.87 / defence 0.72, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 41% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 28%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.45 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights