Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Varbergs BoIS FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Varbergs BoIS FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over GIF Sundsvall (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Varbergs BoIS FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Varbergs BoIS FC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 52% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 58% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.349 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.604 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.197. Data: 18 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 48 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | GIF Sundsvall 4.00. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 / GIF Sundsvall 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.904 / def 1.349 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.604 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC 3 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 46% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 2W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.60x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.43
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.98 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 8W 10D 30L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 13W 12D 23L from 48 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.06 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 0.75 PPG from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 8W 10D 30L in their last 48 games (0.71 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.75 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 38% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 42% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 3-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.35 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.60 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 0.71 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.