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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 2-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.74 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 56% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 21%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 47%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights