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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utsikten and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Utsikten and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.05 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.34 / defence 1.15 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 51% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 27%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 54%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.27 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights