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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Umeå FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Utsikten.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Umeå FC beat Utsikten 1-4 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.53 xG and Umeå FC 1.13 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Umeå FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against Umeå FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.31, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 67% | Draw 18% | Umeå FC 15%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Umeå FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 72%, Umeå FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Umeå FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Umeå FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights