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Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten beat Trelleborg 3-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.78 xG and Trelleborg 1.08 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.24 / defence 1.05 against Trelleborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.42, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 73% | Draw 15% | Trelleborg 12%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 57%, Trelleborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Trelleborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.21 PPG, Trelleborg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights