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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.51 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.75 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 44% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 31%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.56 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights