🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Utsikten and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Utsikten and Orebro SK drew 4-4 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.94 xG and Orebro SK 1.25 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 54% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 24%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.52 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights