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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utsikten and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Final, as Utsikten and Norrby IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.05 xG and Norrby IF 1.28 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.14 / defence 1.20 against Norrby IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 54% | Draw 23% | Norrby IF 23%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 100%, Norrby IF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Utsikten managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights