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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 4-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.42 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 41% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 32%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 56%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.19 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights