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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utsikten and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten and Kalmar FF finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.44 xG and Kalmar FF 1.82 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kalmar FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.30 / defence 1.29 against Kalmar FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 31% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 47%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 47%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.37 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights