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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out IK brage 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten beat IK brage 2-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 2.14 xG and IK brage 1.57 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against IK brage attack 1.27 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utsikten 51% | Draw 22% | IK brage 28%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 57%, IK brage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utsikten's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.20 PPG, IK brage 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights