Utsikten 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees IK brage travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Utsikten's home record at Bravida Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IK brage's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Utsikten's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Utsikten, 1 for IK brage and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 52% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.34 xG and IK brage 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.090 / defence 0.850 | IK brage attack 1.009 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.997. Data: 39 Utsikten games / 39 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 48% | Draw 28% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | IK brage 4.17. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Utsikten dominate the H2H record, yet IK brage are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IK brage (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 60% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 48% | Draw 28% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Utsikten 1.34 / IK brage 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.090 / def 0.850 | IK brage attack 1.009 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.85
IK brage xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs IK brage kick off?
Utsikten vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Utsikten 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Utsikten vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IK brage part of?
Utsikten vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 48% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Utsikten and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
Record (4 meetings): Utsikten 3W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Utsikten and IK brage in?
Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.52
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.20
0.85
IK brage xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.85 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utsikten's recent record stands at 26W 14D 20L from 60 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 23L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.53 PPG, IK brage on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 13W 10D 7L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utsikten are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.38 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and IK brage in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or IK brage away?
Utsikten's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.63 PPG; IK brage away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Utsikten or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IK brage in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utsikten and IK brage runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Utsikten won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utsikten
2
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 5, IK brage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Utsikten 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IK brage?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 63%, IK brage 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Utsikten) and 53% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Utsikten's games and 57% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Utsikten's matches and 53% of IK brage's.
Do Utsikten and IK brage tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IK brage 1-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.34 xG and IK brage 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 48% | Draw 28% | IK brage 24%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 52%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.53 PPG, IK brage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.