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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utsikten beat Umeå FC 1-3 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.97 xG and Utsikten 1.51 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.23 against Utsikten attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 24% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 50%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights