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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Umeå FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Umeå FC 1-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.19 xG and Sandviken 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against Sandviken attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 39% | Draw 29% | Sandviken 31%, with Umeå FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 50%, Sandviken 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sandviken's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights