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Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oddevold beat Umeå FC 0-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.45 xG and Oddevold 1.44 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.27 against Oddevold attack 0.93 / defence 0.54, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 11% | Draw 28% | Oddevold 61%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 40%, Oddevold 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Umeå FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Oddevold's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Oddevold arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights