Trelleborg 0-2 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Umeå FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Umeå FC meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Trelleborg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Umeå FC have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Umeå FC have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Trelleborg's 1.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Umeå FC's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Trelleborg 1W, Umeå FC 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
Umeå FC — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Trelleborg 18% | Umeå FC 47%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 35% | Umeå FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.65 xG and Umeå FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.770 / defence 0.746 | Umeå FC attack 0.750 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.285. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trelleborg's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Trelleborg games / 17 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Umeå FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 10% | Umeå FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Trelleborg 1.65 / Umeå FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.770 / def 0.746 | Umeå FC attack 0.750 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Umeå FC xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Umeå FC kick off?
Trelleborg vs Umeå FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Umeå FC?
Trelleborg 0 - 2 Umeå FC.
Where is Trelleborg vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Umeå FC part of?
Trelleborg vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 60% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trelleborg and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Umeå FC in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Umeå FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.77) and Umeå FC's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Umeå FC's attack (0.75x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.08
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.37
0.72
Umeå FC xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
3%
32.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.72 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Umeå FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Umeå FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 12L across 17 games — 0.29 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trelleborg by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Umeå FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Umeå FC's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.76 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 0W 5D 12L in their last 17 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Umeå FC away?
Trelleborg's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 0.88 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Umeå FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Umeå FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
0
Draws
1
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Umeå FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Umeå FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Trelleborg) and 50% (Umeå FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Trelleborg) and 62% (Umeå FC).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 75% of games; Umeå FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Umeå FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Umeå FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Trelleborg's recent games and 62% of Umeå FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Umeå FC tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Umeå FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Umeå FC beat Trelleborg 0-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.65 xG and Umeå FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Umeå FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.77 / defence 0.75 against Umeå FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.53, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 16%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Umeå FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 35%, Umeå FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Umeå FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 0.82 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Umeå FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.