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Umeå FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Umeå FC beat Trelleborg 0-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.65 xG and Umeå FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Umeå FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.77 / defence 0.75 against Umeå FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.53, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 16%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Umeå FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 35%, Umeå FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Umeå FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 0.82 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Umeå FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights