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Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.16 xG and Sandviken 0.79 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.69 / defence 0.83 against Sandviken attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 44% | Draw 32% | Sandviken 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 41%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sandviken's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.16 PPG, Sandviken 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights