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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.48 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 45% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.35 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights