Trelleborg 0-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Trelleborg, 2 for Ostersunds FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 50% versus Ostersunds FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.48 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.940 / defence 0.965 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.950 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.139. Data: 30 Trelleborg games / 30 Ostersunds FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 4.17. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 50% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 45% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Trelleborg 1.48 / Ostersunds FK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.940 / def 0.965 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.950 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Trelleborg 0 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 45% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (6 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.27
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.52
1.04
Ostersunds FK xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.04 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 22W 15D 23L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 20W 18D 22L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.35 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.53 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 47%, Ostersunds FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.48 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 45% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 24%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.35 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.