Trelleborg 1-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 4D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Trelleborg) versus 1.70 (Ostersunds FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Trelleborg, 2 for Ostersunds FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 56% versus Ostersunds FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 52% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.72 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / defence 1.287 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.977 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.184. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Trelleborg games / 48 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Trelleborg 1.72 / Ostersunds FK 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.934 / def 1.287 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.977 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 43% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
43%
2.35
25%
4.01
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.21
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.49 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 14D 18L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 16W 17D 15L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.29 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 16W 14D 18L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 17D 15L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.38 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 50%, Ostersunds FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Trelleborg) and 42% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Trelleborg's recent games and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Ostersunds FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.72 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 43% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 33%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 52%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.29 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.