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Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat Trelleborg 0-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.84 xG and Orgryte IS 1.48 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against Orgryte IS attack 1.29 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 21% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 52%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 43%, Orgryte IS 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights