Trelleborg 1-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trelleborg face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 5D 2L at Vångavallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Landskrona BoIS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Trelleborg's 0 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Landskrona BoIS have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 56% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 52% | Landskrona BoIS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.11 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.914 / defence 1.178 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.117 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.143. Data: 46 Trelleborg games / 46 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 46%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 2.17. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 60% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Trelleborg 1.11 / Landskrona BoIS 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.914 / def 1.178 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.117 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Trelleborg 1 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 28% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (7 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 3 | Landskrona BoIS 4W.
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.89
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.05
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.50 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 15W 14D 17L from 46 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 15L across 46 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.28 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 9W 5D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.50 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
3
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 48%, Landskrona BoIS 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Trelleborg) and 61% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 61% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trelleborg's matches and 61% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Trelleborg 1-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.11 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 28% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 46%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 52%, Landskrona BoIS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.28 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.