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Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Trelleborg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Trelleborg 0-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.09 xG and IK brage 1.17 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against IK brage attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 34% | Draw 29% | IK brage 38%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.35 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights