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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF finished level at 1-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.45 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 48%, Falkenbergs FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Trelleborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights