Skövde AIK 0-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Södermalms IP to face Skövde AIK in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Skövde AIK's home record at Södermalms IP: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP.
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Skövde AIK's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 53% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 63% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.08 xG and Degerfors IF 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.808 / defence 0.802 | Degerfors IF attack 0.970 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.020. Data: 41 Skövde AIK games / 11 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Degerfors IF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 40% | Degerfors IF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Skövde AIK 1.08 / Degerfors IF 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.808 / def 0.802 | Degerfors IF attack 0.970 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Degerfors IF xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 42% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.97x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.11
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.87
0.79
Degerfors IF xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.79 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 10W 6D 14L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 13L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.03 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.93 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 40%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Skövde AIK) and 53% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.08 xG and Degerfors IF 0.79 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against Degerfors IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 63%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.20 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.