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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandviken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Sandviken 0-3 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.86 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, Vasteras SK FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Vasteras SK FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights