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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.23 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.47 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 32% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 43%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights