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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Utsikten.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Utsikten 3-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.40 xG and Utsikten 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Utsikten attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 45% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 28%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 61%, Utsikten 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Utsikten's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.32 PPG, Utsikten 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights