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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sandviken edge out Umeå FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Umeå FC 2-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.62 xG and Umeå FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Umeå FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.38, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 15%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights