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Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.02 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Trelleborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 35% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 34%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, Trelleborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights