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Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Ostersunds FK 5-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.60 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 54% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights