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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sandviken and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 26, as Sandviken and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 0.94 xG and Orgryte IS 1.83 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Orgryte IS attack 1.32 / defence 0.76, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 19% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 58%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, Orgryte IS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights