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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sandviken edge out Orebro SK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandviken beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.52 xG and Orebro SK 1.41 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Orebro SK attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 39% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 35%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 62%, Orebro SK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Orebro SK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights