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Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.02 / defence 1.30 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 33% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 43%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 62%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights