🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Sandviken's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 1, as Sandviken and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.87 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 57% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights