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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IK brage run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sandviken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Sandviken 2-5 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.38 xG and IK brage 1.55 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.55 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against IK brage attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, IK brage 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandviken's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

IK brage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.46 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights